Just past the everyone else is wrong turnoff, you’ll find Prediction City, it’s a lovely little place.

AL East - Red Sox, Everyone thinks the Yankees are set to repeat, but, A) that is really tough and B) They are so god damn old.

AL Central -  Twins, Prety big toss up in the Central between Tigers, ChiSox and Twins, but even with the loss of Nathan the Twins have the least amount of question marks.

AL West - Angels, Deepest starting rotation in MLB will keep them afloat.

AL Wild Card -  Yankees - I really want to believe in the Rays, but sadly I don’t.

AL MVP - Mauer, he’s the media darling of the AL.

AL Cy Young - Lester, his FIP (Feilding Independent Pitching) was a 3.15 last year meaning a little more help from his defense could drop his actual ERA down.  With the left side of the infeild better and the OF better he could drop his ERA sub 3.

NL East - Phillies, Are their other teams in the NL East?

NL Central - Cardinals, The cubs should rebound this year and give some chase, but lets not forget about Albert Pujols.

NL West - Dodgers, Dear SF, you have good pitching, but it’s hard for me to name a position player not named Kung Fu Panda, or Old Molina.

NL Wild Card- Giants, a lot of people think the Rockies are going to walk away with this division, but I don’t understand how a staff of Ubaldo, De La Rosa, the DL and Old guys  are going to do that.

NL MVP -Albert Pujols, as long as he stays healthy he’s the best hitter in the world.

NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum, as long as he stays healthy he’s the best SP in the world.

World Series - Red Sox

BABIP or Batting Average balls in play is a delightful little stat that gives us some insight into how luck may have played into a baseball season.  Sometimes all the bloops fall in, the seeing eye singles sneak through the infield and the swinging bunts put you on 1st base.  And then sometimes they don’t.  Here we will look at some players that had unlucky seasons last year and could rebound in 2010, keep in mind a BABIP of .299 was average.

Jimmy Rollins - A career .293 BABIP hitter, Rollins was smacked with the unlucky stick, posting a .251 BABIP.  Expect some regression to the mean and a 20 or so point uptick in his BA.

Ian Kinsler - About as up and down as you get in the BABIP department kinsler posted a .334 BABIP in 2008 only to see it drop to .241 in 2009.  He should see that number come back up close to his career avg of .288.  If he can stay healthy that is.

Justin Morneau - Morneau is still in his prime and is coming off draft boards way to late in my opinion.  A balky back and a BABIP of .273 held back his season.  Expect a resurgence in the BA and a few more HRs for a healthy 2010.

Carlos Peña - With all the Ks and not a lot of speed Pena isn’t ever gonna hit for a tremendous avg, but his .227 mark of last season was driven entirely by his anemic .250 BABIP.  Expect Pena to get back up into the .250 range.  Oh and that power, it’s very real.

So, you’re a proud owner of José Reyes (you should have seen this coming), Cliff Lee (at least its not in his pitching arm), Ian Kinsler (it’s gonna happen once a year), or Lance Berkman (uggh).  And now that they are all on, or close to being on, the DL to start the year, where do you look for help.  The good news is most teams are telling us these guys will be back sometime in or near the end of April, this means DONT PANIC. Losing even the entire first month of the season is not a bad thing, especially if you end up stumbling onto waiver wire gold.  Let’s take a look at a couple pickups to target.

Jose Reyes - Chances are you knew that this was happening and you already have a back up plan installed, however if not here are a few names to take a look at.

• Everth Cabrera - Basically Jose-lite. He’s not gonna hit many HRs, but he is going to steal bases and score runs in bunches hitting in front of A-Gon and Kyle Blanks.
• Alcides Escobar - He’s young, he’s unproven, but he has an everyday spot and speed to steal 40+ bases.  Just he can stick in the 1 or 2 spot in that lineup and hit around .280
• Luis Valbuena - In deeper leagues your probably going to be looking at someone like Luis, and while he doesn’t come as touted as the two guys above, he’s young is going to start at 2B (w/ SS eligibility), and had double digit steals and HRs in the minors.

Cliff Lee - This one hurts, but after throwing so many innings last year just be glad his arm isn’t falling off.  In the long run a month or so shutdown for Lee may do him some good.

• Phil Hughes -  He’s young, he’s got the 5th started slot, but he won’t start until April 15th or so as that is when the Yankees will need 5 starters.  If you can wait that long he is a good guy to get. Mat Latos fits into this model as well.
• Bronson Arroyo - He was fantastic to end last season and he is always decent.  Combine that with the fact the Reds play the Padres, Pirates and Marlins in April and you could be looking at some solid starts.
• 2 Solid middle RPs -  This is my preferred strategy for dealing with a Cliff Lee type being out, but you have to have roster room to fit two guys on to make up full production.  You can also go with one RP stud and hope to make up the difference later.  Some good bets are Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, Matt Thornton , David Robertson

Ian Kinsler - 2B is going to be a tough position to fill no matter when the time, but hopefully you got Kinsler discounted so digging into the waiver wire a bit is what you expected.

• Scott Sizemore - He has 20/20 potential and a starting gig, tough to ask for anything more.
• Casey McGehee - Expect some decline from last year, but hopefully not too much.  He’s not gonna steal but the Runs and RBIs should be there.
• Sean Rodriguez - Chances are he either has Util or OF only eligibility at this point, but that could change depending on how the rays play things.  Right now, it looks like he could be the opening day 2B with Zobrist in RF.  If that is the case get him, he has major power potential and if he can find a way to keep the BA, he’ll play in all leagues.

Lance Berkman - Big Puma is down and who knows when he is gonna be back up.  Knee surgery is difficult to figure out and basically don’t expect him to be stealing til past the all-star break.

• Nick Johnson - If, and this is a big IF, he can stay healthy he is gonna hit 20+ HRs and score 100 Runs.  He is a great hitter, but he’s better at getting injured, pray he can stay healthy until Lance is back.
• Luke Scott - At this point he is the O’s starting DH, this could change, but he hit 25 HRs last year in limited play, the BA sucks, but you could do much worse.
• Gaby Sánchez - The rookie of the bunch, he’s the 1B and that is the best you can say for him right now.  He was once projected to have 20+ HR power, and he still might.

Actual questions from Fantasy players and god damn correct answers from me

Q: Nick - Should i trade heath bell, and alexei ramirez for johnny peralta, and jayson werth i have a plethora of closers this is my team?

A: Yes, Alexei and Peralta could end up with very similar number and since you have way to many closers. Go steal Werth, he looks to be a 5 category stud again this year.

Q: DMV - Braun for Halladay?
I have Halladay and I need a way better OF I think
I have Bruce, Lind and Magglio
SP without Doc is Felix, Hanson, Marcum, Latos, Dotel, Shields, Buchholz, Liriano, Matusz

A: Yeah I would do it, Braun is the clearly better value based on ADP and hitters are safer than pitchers even if we’re talking about the Doc.

Q: Bob- should i pickup kevin slowey and drop rich harden as 6th sp in a 12 team 5x5 roto? thanks.

A: Definitely, before Slowey had to get bone chips removed he was a fantastic pitcher last year, low BBs, good K total. Along with the fact that harden has moved to one of the worst pitchers parks in the country and can’t stay on the field for more than 130 innings i say take the plunge.  

Q: Logan - I get suzuki and Roberts

He gets Lind and A. Cabrera

I’d like to keep some power but i’m lacking in steals and average

A: Until Roberts plays in a spring game again, supposedly next week I wouldn’t do that trade. I think Asdrubal runs more than he did last year and could potential match most of Roberts’ value.

Q: Foto - I always like a multi-position guy on my squad

Who would you choose between these two, both with new teams and should be starters?

Jerry Hairston Jr (SD - 2B,3B,SS,OF)

or

Mark DeRosa (SF - 1B,3B,OF)

A: I believe that Jerry Harriston is going to once again be stuck in a platoon role, this time with Tony Gywnn Jr. Because of that I think Derosa is the right choice here. Also, better ballpark, better lineup for Derosa.

Position Eligibility should always be thought of as a slight bump to a players value, and in some cases like Catcher eligibility it gives players a huge jump in rankings. So lets look at some of the players who will get a bump and a decrease from their eligibility.

The +’s

• Ben Zobrist (2B,SS,CF,RF) - One of most flexible men in reality and fantasy baseball and he looks to be destined for a combination of 2B and RF, however I would bet that he retains more than 5 starts at SS again this year.  As shallow as SS is, Zobrist could really help a team who is taking a chance on a late round SS.
• Gordon Beckham (3B) - As of right now Beckham only has 3B eligibility, however he is slated to start the years at 2B and once he eclipses your leagues requirements he will be one of the few people eligible at both the Corner and middle infield slots.
• Asdrubal Cabrera (2B, SS) - Asdrubal is one of my Middle Infield sleepers for this year and is a good guy to pair with an injury prone or potential bust SS or 2B, i.e. Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Reyes or any SS after the top 4.
• Chris Davis (1B, 3B) - He is only going to play 1B this year, however almost no team will be using him there even if he breaks out as 1B is so deep this year.  3B is really where his value could be.
• Hideki Matsui (Util) - Only Util available right now, however the Angels played him in the OF today, and he looks like he will get a chance to be at least a twice a week OF.

The -’s

• Pablo Sandoval (1B, 3B) - Oh Kung Fu Panda, if only you could have picked up a couple more starts a C.  Then you’d be a like a real Kung Fu master, chopping your way up the draft boards.
• Brandon Inge (3B) - That .230 avg played when you were a C, not anymore.
• Víctor Martínez (C, 1B) - Now Vic Damone hasn’t lost any C eligibility like the others above, however he may be gaining too much Catcher eligibility as the Red Sox say he will be there everyday catcher. And why could this be a bad thing, well Vic’s numbers while catching, 316 ABs .281/.363/.420 with 8 HRs, as a 1B, 255 ABs .329/.405/.537 with 13 HRs.  Obviously these numbers don’t exactly favor Vic in the crouch.

I wanted to just go with Shootin’ Blanks as the title, but then I figured no one would have any idea what this post was about, so i got hardcore specific past the / mark.  No one has ever said that I trust the interwebs to get my awkward Kyle Blanks references. 

Every year after your draft or auction is over its good to take a hard look at your team and see what categories your might be truly screwed in.  And since I think punting any category is a ridiculous concept thrown around by so called experts, lets take a look at where you can find some helpful 1 or 2 category players with potential to breakout.

Draft Result #1 - So you ended up with some combination of Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, or even David Wright (until he shows me he has power again I see under for 20 Hrs) and well you’ve got SBs locked up, but light tower power isn’t quite what your team is going to be known for.  Who do you target to help show the rest of your team how to do the home run trot.

• Kyle Blanks - (OF) see get it, the title still isn’t that funny. But Blanks is the real deal, at only 23 Blanks crushed 10 Hrs in only 148 ABs last year and has hit at every level of minor league play.  Combine that with the fact that he was a decently patient hitter throughout his minor league career and his dad’s nickname was Sugar Bear and you’re looking at a potential 30 HR campaign from the youngster, PETCO be dammed.
  
  
• Chris Davis - (1B, 3B) the ultimate power tool post hype sleeper, if he’s still available take a shot, unless your league counts strikeouts, then your double effed with his ughh BA and enough whiffs that they should put a windmill in Arlington’s outfield.
  
  
• Garrett Jones - (1B, OF) yes he is a bit old to be a rookie, yes he looked like a Quad-A player for most of his career and yes Pittsburgh is already his third team.  But a .938 OPS in 300+ ABs is legit, and with a handful of 20+ HR seasons in the minors, the power is real.

Draft Result #2 - So you ended up with Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Lind and a bunch of other basesloths, while power is locked up SBs and maybe even Runs may be a challenge.  The good news is that SBs this year are plentiful, especially on the FA wire.

• Cameron Maybin (OF) -If he’s in your FA pool and you need SBs go get Maybin now.  While he only had 1 SB last year, Maybin is a 5 tool player with immediate upside in all formats.  He should be a lock for 25+ bases this year and while he will have some growing pains hitting in the 2 hole in front of Hanley should help him out immensely.

• Everth Cabrera (SS) - With 25 SBs in only 377 ABs last year we could easily see E-Cab, E-Money, Evercab, stealing upwards of 40 bags this year.  He will be locked into the Fathers lineup with A-Gon, Kyle Blanks, and Chase Headley hitting behind him so runs will be aplenty as well.  With the abrupt cliff that is SS this season Evercab is going to end up starting on a lot of teams.
  
  
• Juan Pierre (OF) - Now that he’s at the Cell, you may see a extreme uptick in Pierre’s HRs, and by that I mean he might eclipse his full season record of 3 (3 really pierre, during the steroid era, you put up a 3 spot).  However, he’s good for 30-40 SBs, 300+ BA, and 100+ Runs.  And hes probably available in your league.

Draft Result #3 - You ended up with a staff anchored with Chris Carpenter, Scott Baker, John Danks or James Shields and few other light tossers.  Your ERA is solid and so is you’re Win potential, but Ks are lacking.

• Jonathan Sánchez (SP) - It seems like a lot of people are predicting, like they did last year, a breakout from Sanchez and while I like his stuff quite a bit his control is atrocious.  However, the Ks are legit and will flow like wine.  As long as you can take a hit in the Whip department Sanchez is for you.
• Aaron Harang (SP) - While not the pitcher he once was, Harang when healthy is a 200K guy.  He could bounce back to help in every other category as well.  So while he may look like a raccoon/man hybrid, those Ks will look damn good on your fantasy team.
• Ted Lilly (SP) - Coming off an injury year in 2009 Lilly could be an overall steal if he can get and stay healthy in Mid April as reports seem to be indicating.  He’s got 180K stuff and the ability to win 15 games.  Seems like another no brainer.

Kerry Wood is gonna spend close to 2 months on the DL - Get Chris Perez immediately

Joe Nathan is officially out of the year - Take a flyer on Jon Rauch 1st, Matt Guerrier 2nd.

Huston Street is supposed to miss the 1st part of April - Your new mile high guy is Franklin Morales

We’ve all heard the old adage, “Don’t pay for saves!”.  Seriously don’t do it, you be killing your fantasy team, you freak.  But in reality Saves are a category and every category is worth points and therefore a piece of the championship.  In reality the saying should be more like, don’t risk a lot on saves.  So it is important that when you do pay for saves, with either a draft pick, roster spot or auction dollar, have these three rules in mind:

Health is the most important factor when finding a good closer.  Any past arm trouble is a giant red flag and so is use/age.  

Cases in point:

• Joe Nathan, now I’m not gonna sit here and say I Houdini style predicted Joe Nathan’s potential season ended arm troubles, but I am going to say that I had no desire to add him to any of my teams.  The man is 35, so age is a concern, has logged over 68 high stress innings ever year for each of the last 7 years, so use is a concern, and had bone chips removed from his elbow in Oct of 2009, so injury risk is a concern.  I mean all the facts were standing there pointing at you and laughing and then doubling over and then begging you to draft him again.

• Huston Street spent 91 total days on the DL over 2006 and 2007.  Just cause he was off the DL for two seasons doesn’t mean that everything in that arm of his is 100%.

• Kerry Wood, do we really need to get into the specifics, I mean hasn’t this man and his fantasy owners suffered enough. 

• Matt Capps spent 54 DL days in 2008 with Bursitis in his pitching shoulder. 

• Rafael Soriano, 154 DL days in 2005 recovering from elbow surgery, red flag, 15 DL days in 2006 with right shoulder fatigue, Red Flag, and 154 DL days in 2008 with inflammation of his right shoulder, GIANT RED FLAGS EVERYWHERE.  

• Mariano Rivera, I’m not saying that he won’t be good this year, I’m just saying I don’t want to own him when the wheels fall off.  Which at 40 could be very soon

Roll is the second most important factor, simply because about a dozen non-closers who are next in line will accumulate a usable number of saves.  These are my favorite players to own, last round fliers on guys nobody else wants who can be tossed back at anytime and may potentially turn into fantasy gold.  Also, they can really add some bump to your Ks, help ease a bad start or two and should pick up 5 or so wins.

Cases in point from last year:

• Ryan Franklin, David “the pirate” Aardsma, Andrew Bailey

This year I like:

• Chris Perez, see Kerry Wood’s status above.

• Mike Adams, Heath Bell is gonna get dealt, its just a matter of when.

• Matt Thornton, Bobby Jenks has some screws loose, has had some nagging injuries and plays for Ozzie Guillen, who knows what could happen.

• Brad Ziegler, Andrew Bailey has already had some arm problems this spring.

Peripherals is the last factor for finding a good closer, after you’ve found a few guys who are cheap, can pick up saves and don’t have any red flags, don’t look at their save total from last year, don’t look at the team they are on, look at their projected K/9 and Whip.  As these stay strong so will your fantasy closer.